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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.

Arkansas Little Rock

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:42.0
Current RPI:42
Expected SOS:233
Current SOS:233
Current Record:27-4
Expected Record:27-4
Current Conf Record:19-3
Expected Conf Record:19-3
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:9-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-2
Current OOC Record:8-1
Expected OOC Record:8-1
Expected OOC RPI:48
Expected OOC SOS:277


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
27-442.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Arkansas Little Rock.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-21San Diego St. (41.0)MWCA43-49W100%0.0
11-26East Carolina (217.0)AmerN46-54W100%0.0
11-28Tulsa (58.0)AmerA60-64W100%0.0
12-1Central Arkansas (339.0)SlndH79-73W100%0.0
12-5Idaho (191.0)BSkyA54-64W100%0.0
12-12DePaul (198.0)BEA44-66W100%0.0
12-16Central Arkansas (339.0)SlndA54-77W100%0.0
12-20Northern Arizona (333.0)BSkyH84-57W100%0.0
12-22Texas Tech (36.0)B12A65-53L0%0.0
12-30South Alabama (240.0)SBA60-69W100%0.0
1-2Troy (293.0)SBA61-67W100%0.0
1-7Louisiana Lafayette (157.0)SBH77-57W100%0.0
1-9Louisiana Monroe (95.0)SBH58-57W100%0.0
1-14Appalachian St. (259.0)SBH81-55W100%0.0
1-18Arkansas St. (285.0)SBA76-73L0%0.0
1-21Texas St. (238.0)SBA74-77W100%0.0
1-23UT Arlington (105.0)SBA62-68W100%0.0
1-28Georgia Southern (243.0)SBH80-67W100%0.0
1-30Georgia St. (180.0)SBH63-53W100%0.0
2-4Troy (293.0)SBH72-49W100%0.0
2-6South Alabama (240.0)SBH74-43W100%0.0
2-11Louisiana Monroe (95.0)SBA86-82L0%0.0
2-13Louisiana Lafayette (157.0)SBA64-68W100%0.0
2-18Georgia St. (180.0)SBA49-57W100%0.0
2-20Georgia Southern (243.0)SBA61-75W100%0.0
2-25UT Arlington (105.0)SBH72-60W100%0.0
2-27Texas St. (238.0)SBH73-68W100%0.0
3-1Arkansas St. (285.0)SBH89-80W100%0.0
3-3Appalachian St. (259.0)SBA69-63L0%0.0
3-12Louisiana Lafayette (157.0)SBN72-65W100%0.0
3-13Louisiana Monroe (95.0)SBN70-50W100%0.0

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Arkansas Little Rock's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Arkansas Little Rock's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Arkansas Little Rock.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.


Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Arkansas Little RockSB26.6526.6591.8491.8422.3022.30
Louisiana MonroeSB5.935.9360.7160.711.271.27
Louisiana LafayetteSB5.925.9257.6957.690.910.91
South AlabamaSB4.454.4541.3841.38-0.77-0.77
UT ArlingtonSB4.454.4573.3373.332.082.08
Texas St.SB4.414.4148.1548.15-0.16-0.16
Arkansas St.SB4.364.3629.6329.63-1.78-1.78
Georgia SouthernSB4.364.3644.4444.44-0.48-0.48
Georgia St.SB4.364.3653.8553.850.340.34
TroySB4.334.3325.9325.93-2.09-2.09
Appalachian St.SB4.314.3127.5927.59-1.93-1.93
Central ArkansasSlnd3.313.3126.9226.92-1.53-1.53
TulsaAmer1.751.7566.6766.670.580.58
IdahoBSky1.731.7363.3363.330.460.46
Northern ArizonaBSky1.691.6911.1111.11-1.32-1.32
East CarolinaAmer1.691.6938.7138.71-0.38-0.38
San Diego St.MWC1.641.6474.1974.190.790.79
DePaulBE1.611.6130.0030.00-0.65-0.65
Texas TechB121.611.6160.0060.000.320.32
McNeese St.Slnd0.250.2526.9226.92-0.12-0.12
New OrleansSlnd0.200.2025.9325.93-0.10-0.10
Northwestern St.Slnd0.190.1920.8320.83-0.11-0.11
MississippiSEC0.170.1762.5062.500.040.04
Southern MissCUSA0.170.1725.9325.93-0.08-0.08
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.160.1650.0050.000.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.160.1666.6766.670.050.05
South FloridaAmer0.160.1624.2424.24-0.08-0.08
HoustonAmer0.160.1670.9770.970.070.07
West VirginiaB120.160.1676.4776.470.080.08
TexasB120.150.1562.5062.500.040.04
TulaneAmer0.150.1535.2935.29-0.05-0.05
MemphisAmer0.150.1555.8855.880.020.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.140.1451.7251.720.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.140.1425.8125.81-0.07-0.07
Louisiana TechCUSA0.130.1370.0070.000.050.05
SamfordSC0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
North TexasCUSA0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.120.1232.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.110.1176.6776.670.060.06
UABCUSA0.110.1180.6580.650.070.07
UTSACUSA0.110.1113.3313.33-0.08-0.08
Savannah St.MEAC0.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Washington St.P120.110.1126.6726.67-0.05-0.05
IUPUISum0.110.1138.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.110.1170.9770.970.050.05
MontanaBSky0.110.1162.0762.070.030.03
OklahomaB120.110.1178.1278.120.060.06
Southern UtahBSky0.110.1114.2914.29-0.08-0.08
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.110.1182.1482.140.070.07
BaylorB120.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
Seton HallBE0.110.1175.7675.760.060.06
UTEPCUSA0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
MinnesotaB100.100.1025.8125.81-0.05-0.05
Penn St.B100.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
RiceCUSA0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
SMUAmer0.100.1083.3383.330.070.07
TempleAmer0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
UCFAmer0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Idaho St.BSky0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
AlabamaSEC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Miami FLACC0.080.0878.1278.120.050.05
PepperdineWCC0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
UCLAP120.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.080.0872.4172.410.040.04
North DakotaBSky0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
Portland St.BSky0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
USC UpstateASun0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Boise St.MWC0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
CanisiusMAAC0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.080.0884.3884.380.050.05
GeorgetownBE0.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
TCUB120.080.0836.3636.36-0.02-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.080.0870.5970.590.030.03
KansasB120.080.0887.8887.880.060.06
San Jose St.MWC0.080.0821.4321.43-0.04-0.04
Fresno St.MWC0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.080.0814.2914.29-0.05-0.05
Utah St.MWC0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0656.0056.000.010.01
LamarSlnd0.060.0626.9226.92-0.03-0.03
MassachusettsA100.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.060.0662.8662.860.010.01
PittsburghACC0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
RutgersB100.060.0619.3519.35-0.04-0.04
Wright St.Horz0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
AuburnSEC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
DukeACC0.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
MissouriSEC0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
OregonP120.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
The CitadelSC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.060.0618.5218.52-0.04-0.04
WinthropBSth0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
BelmontOVC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
ButlerBE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
CreightonBE0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
DenverSum0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
FurmanSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
HofstraCAA0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Iowa St.B120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
LibertyBSth0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
LSUSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
MercerSC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
St. John'sBE0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
VillanovaBE0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
XavierBE0.050.0584.3884.380.040.04
UtahP120.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
BradleyMVC0.050.0512.9012.90-0.04-0.04
CaliforniaP120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
FordhamA100.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
NevadaMWC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Ohio St.B100.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
UNLVMWC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
WyomingMWC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0324.2424.24-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.030.033.453.45-0.02-0.02
DrakeMVC0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
George WashingtonA100.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
HawaiiBW0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
High PointBSth0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
NorthwesternB100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
OhioMAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
RichmondA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
StanfordP120.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UC DavisBW0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
USCP120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0379.3179.310.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0376.6776.670.010.01